Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.312784 0.354809 0.400420 0.453608 0.513942 0.580279 0.658775
2025-10-05 0.257591 0.314641 0.381263 0.464844 0.566978 0.687833 0.841883
2025-10-12 0.210010 0.274187 0.354237 0.461514 0.601714 0.779011 1.020764
2025-10-19 0.176203 0.244645 0.335380 0.464635 0.644412 0.886215 1.237253
2025-10-26 0.152192 0.223752 0.324149 0.475549 0.698723 1.016685 1.506163
2025-11-02 0.125490 0.194550 0.296672 0.459044 0.711684 1.091448 1.708934
2025-11-09 0.102683 0.167262 0.267555 0.435094 0.709278 1.142609 1.884234
2025-11-16 0.087440 0.149205 0.249648 0.425421 0.727091 1.226924 2.124749
2025-11-23 0.074789 0.133309 0.232680 0.414356 0.740434 1.305297 2.367308
2025-11-30 0.067589 0.125571 0.228161 0.423691 0.789917 1.451807 2.751609
2025-12-07 0.058013 0.112052 0.211421 0.408360 0.792301 1.514431 2.991869
2025-12-14 0.051023 0.102263 0.200010 0.401086 0.808360 1.604089 3.297147
2025-12-21 0.044631 0.092877 0.188410 0.392526 0.822357 1.695353 3.628535
2025-12-28 0.041298 0.089142 0.187381 0.405178 0.881550 1.886370 4.200039
2026-01-04 0.037113 0.082967 0.180457 0.404396 0.912384 2.023566 4.680095
2026-01-11 0.033880 0.078356 0.176156 0.408668 0.955079 2.193235 5.263365
2026-01-18 0.031504 0.075298 0.174802 0.419395 1.014278 2.409310 5.993514
2026-01-25 0.027743 0.068416 0.163748 0.405652 1.013553 2.486472 6.401207
2026-02-01 0.024063 0.061153 0.150722 0.385057 0.992764 2.512282 6.684930
2026-02-08 0.021566 0.056439 0.143150 0.376889 1.002005 2.613942 7.184291
2026-02-15 0.019302 0.051969 0.135523 0.367366 1.006191 2.703405 7.667301
2026-02-22 0.018151 0.050260 0.134707 0.375830 1.060117 2.932615 8.580162
2026-03-01 0.016154 0.045938 0.126376 0.362385 1.051224 2.989937 9.011019